Thanks for doing this, Kyle. I’m curious about the Banff-Jasper numbers and whether your transposition included the 2023 poll that included parts of the Town of Rocky Mountain House? I ask because the proposed interim boundaries use the North Saskatchewan River as the boundary near RMH and does not include the town (by my read of the interim report). My gut tells me that the transposed numbers for the UCP in that riding are higher than they should be if Bragg Creek, Bearspaw and Springbank are removed (from the current Banff-Kananaskis riding).
Hey Dave! My initial transposition did, but I've removed it and had the riding flip over to the NDP. It went from a 5-point UCP lead to the current NDP lead. Otherwise it should all match up (best as I could manage with the low resolution of the report file!).
Hi again Dave - after looking a bit more, it seems I slotted in Sundre to the riding as well. I knew Banff-Jasper was going to give me a problem with the massive geography of both it and the vote locations... but its been corrected, gives the NDP 52% total.
Great map, Kyle! I did not expect Cross to flip completely when boundaries were redrawn. Suffice it to say I have feelings about the Calgary boundaries in particular…
A couple things confuse me, though. Joseph Schow lives in Cardston, so why would he be the incumbent two seats away?
Secondly, an NDP-friendly chunk of central Lethbridge (south of 6 Ave S) has moved from West to East. I might not have noticed except for it being where my great-grandfather lived his whole life! In any case, no margin changes are shown to either Lethbridge seat, even though it would make East more marginal based on past results. Why is this?
Hey Gabriel, thanks! Regarding Schow and I'm sure other incumbents - I only went by area of ridings, I didn't look into the background of the MLAs or anything. So Schow may be from Cardston but most of his seat has shifted elsewhere, etc.
Regarding Lethbridge, it may be something I have to look into as I did with Jasper-Banff when someone pointed it out to me. Because of the size of the tabulator voting locations from 2023, this isn't as fine-tuned as I've done in prior jurisdictions like BC, Ontario (before the tabulators) Quebec, and of course the federal redistribution. And because the Boundaries Commission has yet to put out its own GIS files, I had to do these on my own from the boundary maps and descriptions. I tend not to break up polls, so its possible QGIS put it into Lethbridge West when it should've been in East - I try to be careful in cities but mistakes happen. I'll check and let you know! Its very easy for me to update.
Hi again Gabriel - I've made an adjustment to Lethbridge East to include that voting location, you're right it makes it quite a bit closer (though still UCP). Thanks for the due diligence!
Thanks for doing this, Kyle. I’m curious about the Banff-Jasper numbers and whether your transposition included the 2023 poll that included parts of the Town of Rocky Mountain House? I ask because the proposed interim boundaries use the North Saskatchewan River as the boundary near RMH and does not include the town (by my read of the interim report). My gut tells me that the transposed numbers for the UCP in that riding are higher than they should be if Bragg Creek, Bearspaw and Springbank are removed (from the current Banff-Kananaskis riding).
Thanks. 👍
Hey Dave! My initial transposition did, but I've removed it and had the riding flip over to the NDP. It went from a 5-point UCP lead to the current NDP lead. Otherwise it should all match up (best as I could manage with the low resolution of the report file!).
Hi again Dave - after looking a bit more, it seems I slotted in Sundre to the riding as well. I knew Banff-Jasper was going to give me a problem with the massive geography of both it and the vote locations... but its been corrected, gives the NDP 52% total.
Great map, Kyle! I did not expect Cross to flip completely when boundaries were redrawn. Suffice it to say I have feelings about the Calgary boundaries in particular…
A couple things confuse me, though. Joseph Schow lives in Cardston, so why would he be the incumbent two seats away?
Secondly, an NDP-friendly chunk of central Lethbridge (south of 6 Ave S) has moved from West to East. I might not have noticed except for it being where my great-grandfather lived his whole life! In any case, no margin changes are shown to either Lethbridge seat, even though it would make East more marginal based on past results. Why is this?
Hey Gabriel, thanks! Regarding Schow and I'm sure other incumbents - I only went by area of ridings, I didn't look into the background of the MLAs or anything. So Schow may be from Cardston but most of his seat has shifted elsewhere, etc.
Regarding Lethbridge, it may be something I have to look into as I did with Jasper-Banff when someone pointed it out to me. Because of the size of the tabulator voting locations from 2023, this isn't as fine-tuned as I've done in prior jurisdictions like BC, Ontario (before the tabulators) Quebec, and of course the federal redistribution. And because the Boundaries Commission has yet to put out its own GIS files, I had to do these on my own from the boundary maps and descriptions. I tend not to break up polls, so its possible QGIS put it into Lethbridge West when it should've been in East - I try to be careful in cities but mistakes happen. I'll check and let you know! Its very easy for me to update.
Hi again Gabriel - I've made an adjustment to Lethbridge East to include that voting location, you're right it makes it quite a bit closer (though still UCP). Thanks for the due diligence!
Darn! I was hoping the concentrated orange was enough for a 42nd seat. I like the change, at any rate.