Alberta Interim Boundaries Transposition
Alberta's electoral boundaries commission has put out an initial look-see at the new 89-seat map
NOTE: An error in the transposition gave Banff-Jasper to the UCP, its now been corrected. The final tally is 48 UCP to 41 NDP and this has been reflected in both charts.
As the electoral season winds down for a year (hopefully), us electoral nerds have something new to sink our teeth into for a bit. After being let down by Quebec’s decision to pull back from new boundaries, and whatever Doug Ford is doing, Alberta is the next province to institute some new boundaries.
Their independent boundaries commission has put out a new report. The next legislature is slated to have 89 seats (up two from current), with several rural seats and one urban core seat disappearing to make way for more suburbia. The biggest changes to go over are:
Elimination of Edmonton-Riverview and merger into Edmonton-Glenora, setting up a fight between NDP MLAs Lori Sigurdson and Sarah Hoffman;
Elimination/merger of Lesser Slave Lake into Peace River (renamed Mackenzie) and Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, setting up a fight between former UCP MLA-turned-Alberta Party/PC revivalist wannabe Scott Sinclair and his former colleagues Dan Williams and Glenn Van Dijken;
Carving up of Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House, forcing UCP MLA Jason Nixon into a likely fight with caucus mates, either Jennifer Johnson or Tara Sawyer;
Several incumbents put into dicey situations, including NDPers
Sarah Elmeligi (Banff-Kananaskis) andDiana Batten (Calgary-Acadia) and UCPers Mickey Amery (Calgary-Cross) and the aforementioned rural.
I’ve done the work to create a transposition of the 2023 general election onto the new boundaries. You can see it in two formats:
Important to note that these boundaries are not final and there will be revisions. There were even some in the interim report, with seven alternate riding configurations proposed. Give it a read and share!
Thanks for doing this, Kyle. I’m curious about the Banff-Jasper numbers and whether your transposition included the 2023 poll that included parts of the Town of Rocky Mountain House? I ask because the proposed interim boundaries use the North Saskatchewan River as the boundary near RMH and does not include the town (by my read of the interim report). My gut tells me that the transposed numbers for the UCP in that riding are higher than they should be if Bragg Creek, Bearspaw and Springbank are removed (from the current Banff-Kananaskis riding).
Thanks. 👍
Great map, Kyle! I did not expect Cross to flip completely when boundaries were redrawn. Suffice it to say I have feelings about the Calgary boundaries in particular…
A couple things confuse me, though. Joseph Schow lives in Cardston, so why would he be the incumbent two seats away?
Secondly, an NDP-friendly chunk of central Lethbridge (south of 6 Ave S) has moved from West to East. I might not have noticed except for it being where my great-grandfather lived his whole life! In any case, no margin changes are shown to either Lethbridge seat, even though it would make East more marginal based on past results. Why is this?