Low turnout, high stakes, and a large slate of credible candidates makes this municipal by-election one to not count your chickens before they hatch on.
On Mainstreet -- throughout the 2022 Québec campaign they persistently overestimated the PCQ and underestimated QS (to the point of showing the PCQ well ahead of QS among young voters in some polls!) -- I haven’t been closely following the Toronto race but I wonder if whatever went wrong for Mainstreet in Québec is repeating here?
Could very well, they've not changed methodology much - though that seems related to their overestimation of the PPC back in 2021 (final poll had them at 9% or something). That might be due to a quirk of IVR/robocall systems - but in this case, 3 of 4 pollsters in Toronto use IVR. There's something consistently odd here then about MSR.
On Mainstreet -- throughout the 2022 Québec campaign they persistently overestimated the PCQ and underestimated QS (to the point of showing the PCQ well ahead of QS among young voters in some polls!) -- I haven’t been closely following the Toronto race but I wonder if whatever went wrong for Mainstreet in Québec is repeating here?
Could very well, they've not changed methodology much - though that seems related to their overestimation of the PPC back in 2021 (final poll had them at 9% or something). That might be due to a quirk of IVR/robocall systems - but in this case, 3 of 4 pollsters in Toronto use IVR. There's something consistently odd here then about MSR.