Welcome to Your 343-Seat Parliament, Canada

2023 Order Representation is set to be complete - time to check out the results.

Its finally done - all ten Federal Boundaries Commissions have completed their work, from the sunny inlets of British Columbia to the icebergy shores of Newfoundland and Labrador, the next* House of Commons will have 343 members instead of the current 338. That’s right 338 Canada - your name will have to change soon.

For those new to the process, or those wanting a quick refresher, the more or less decennial redistribution of seats in the HoC comes following every odd-year census - i.e., the 2001 Census was followed by the 2003 redistribution, the 2011 Census by 2013, 2021 by 2023, etc. Following a seat allocation formula informed by a variety of constitutional clauses and legislation, ten commissions - one for each province - led by three independently appointed commissioners go to work redrawing lines based on population, demographics, communities of interest, both public input and the input of community leaders and, of course, the incumbents in the HoC.

As of July 19, all ten reports have been tabled in the House of Commons and are simply awaiting to be signed into law. It is not expected there will be any further changes given the lengthy process for feedback and input, though if there is, they will be extremely minor - limited to name changes, not redrawing of lines, which would be a rarity. That finalization process is expected to be complete by September.

You can view the entire process, including objections and suggestions, online at the Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution website.

The Quick Summary

• Canada’s House of Commons will go up to 343 seats, up 5 from the current 338

• An initial transposition of the 2021 federal election ends up with:

  • 157 Liberals (↓3)

  • 126 Conservatives (↑7)

  • 34 Bloc Québécois (↑2)

  • 24 New Democrats (↓1)

  • 2 Greens (=)

• A transposition of the 2019 federal election shows:

  • 153 Liberals (↓4)

  • 130 Conservatives (↑9)

  • 33 Bloc Québécois (↑1)

  • 24 New Democrats (=)

  • 3 Greens (=)

  • 0 Independents (↓1)

• The redistribution worked slightly in favour of the Conservatives, with the addition of three seats in Alberta and one in British Columbia as easy pickups and/or targets, and a reshuffling of a handful of rurban seats in the GTA and northern seats in Ontario, handing them safer seats;

• Despite this, the structural advantage of the Liberals in the GTA, Lower Mainland, and Quebec remains very much intact under these new maps.

You can find an online interactive and downloadable Excel spreadsheet of the 2021 and 2019 election here.

You can also download maps below of both the 2021 and 2019 transposed results by margin:

The Details - Winners, Losers, and Those Just Gettin’ By

While the Conservatives were this year’s lucky winners in the redistribution sweepstakes - they really only scraped by. The topline changes are deceptive.

First up, easy wins - the new Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies seat in BC’s Interior, which follows a path along Highway 1 from Revelstoke to Kamloops, is an easy safe seat, winning it by just under 12,000 votes in 2021, making it the safer of the two Kamloops ridings. A similar story for the new seats of Parkland, AB, Airdrie—Cochrane, AB, Middlesex—London, ON, New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury, ON, and York—Durham, ON - all new ultra-safe Conservative seats.

Less safe but more intriguing are the new seats added to Edmonton and Calgary. Edmonton Gateway, slotted between Riverbend and Southeast, is on paper ‘safe’ only due to a severe vote split - the CPC won it 18,000 votes - compared to just under 11,000 apiece for the Liberals and New Democrats. A similar story for Edmonton Northwest, where consolidation behind one or the other could easily outpace the blue team.

In the reconfigured Calgary Skyview the opposition is clearer - with the bulk of George Chahal’s riding moving to the new Calgary McKnight, a notional Liberal pickup, the remainder gives the Liberals a shot at a second strong riding in the city’s northeast. The Conservatives only won 16,156 votes versus 12,032 for the Liberals in the Skyview seat in 2021.

Moving east, the Conservatives gained notional flips in Niagara South (a reconfigured Niagara Centre) and Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma (amusingly causing a loss for both the Liberals and NDP, as both held the prior seats that make up this new one).

However the fun stops there, as the redistribution process lent them no luck breaking further into Fortress GTA, save for a competitive seat in Halton - Milton East—Halton Hills South, which they lost only by 500 votes in 2021. Which leads us to…

The Liberals primarily lucked out for the most part. Aside from a safe additional seat in Brampton—Chinguacousy Park (nearly 8,000 vote lead in 2011) and a notional if curious flip in Saskatchewan by way of the new Indigenous-majority riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, the Liberals primarily benefited from not seeing too much of a dent in their notional caucus ranks.

While Toronto loses a seat, where a potential nomination fight is brewing in the newly merged Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East, they saw no changes elsewhere that put them at a disadvantage, at least none more than they were facing already. The last minute changes to maintain the status quo shapes Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver Granville (initially slated to see massive overhauls that would’ve put both seats in competitive reach for the Conservatives and NDP) saved them from any severe threats.

The notional flips to the Conservatives in the previously mentioned Niagara South, Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma, and also Edmonton Centre, as well as two flips to the Bloc in Chateauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville and Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj are all very narrow and, with even mildly attentive campaigns from their incumbents, could be easy holds.

Everyone’s favourites the Bloc Québécois, as mentioned, gain two slim flips in ridings they were already competitive in anyway - though going from a 2,600-vote deficit in Gaspésie to a 2,300-vote advantage is nothing to sneeze at. The reorganization in the east worked in their advantage as well, lending them a new 450-area seat in Les Pays-d’en-Haut, an ultra-safe seat they won by over 12,000 votes in 2021.

Next is a mixed bag result for the New Democrats. Despite some initial glimmers of interesting results, the NDP have ended up at a net loss with no gains - but not a great shift in targets either.

Starting off, Carol Hughes’ seat of Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing was wiped out, half reformed into the previously mentioned Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma and half merged into the new Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, a seat the Liberals hold marginally… and also happens to be a three-way race with the Conservatives barely behind.

While not a loss in 2021, Richard Cannings’ new seat of Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay becomes a lot more competitive, less than 1,000 votes in 2021 - and was in fact a notional loss in 2019. They otherwise saw no seats move toward them in any significant way, even marginals like Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore or Davenport - in fact the latter moved away from the NDP, giving the Liberals a bit of breathing room.

Mostly the problem for the NDP is that their poor luck mirrored the Liberal’s good luck - such as the Granville situation, which would have granted them a different shot at a pickup, but now sees Taleeb Noormohamed’s seat become a little better for him. Still attainable, but… ah shucks it would’ve been nice y’know?

Speaking of lost opportunities, we come to my long suffering Greens. Both May in Saanich—Gulf Islands and Morrice in Kitchener Centre saw their boundaries shift and their margins drop some - but not enough to be worrying. While the 2021 results aren’t very instructive, the 2019 results are at least stable for the Greens - so their targets remain the same.

Of special interest however will be the slightly reconfigured West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country riding - which, because of the loss of a good chunk of the City of West Vancouver around Ambleside, goes from a notionally BC Liberal riding based on the 2020 election - to a notional BC Green riding, by about 500 votes.

And that’s it, folks - these are your new federal electoral district boundaries!

* Lets hope an election isn’t called before they’re put into place.